Born in Aussie or NZ, playing for the Pacific: the startling demographics of the Rugby League World Cup

The Rugby League World Cup (RLWC) reaches its semi-finals this weekend, in a tournament that’s been marked by upsets, nail-biting finishes and some lopsided scorelines.

On Saturday in Newcastle, New Zealand’s Kiwi Ferns face Fetu Samoa in the women’s competition, before the Kiwis take on an unbeaten Tonga. Sunday’s matches in Sydney see Australia’s Jillaroos meet Fiji, while their counterparts the Kangaroos face Samoa in a rematch of the previous RLWC men’s final.

Pacific nations feature in all four semi-finals. But while the teams represent countries across the region, the vast majority of their players were born in Australia or New Zealand.

Our analysis of the semi-final squads found 85% of the women and 95% of the men were born in these two countries. Many have also represented other nations during their international careers.

These figures speak to the tight connections between Pacific countries, Australia and New Zealand – and the opportunities rugby league offers players with ties to more than one nation.

Small populations, big ties

By comparing squad profiles with population data, we can see how migration, family connections and population trends are reflected on the rugby league field.

Population size is no guarantee of success in international rugby league. England and France, with populations of around 59 million and 66 million respectively, have already been eliminated. Yet Tonga, home to just 105,000 people, has reached the men’s semi-finals.

The Cook Islands, with fewer than 15,000 residents, is the smallest country represented at the tournament. Although the Cook Islands is not in the semi-finals, seven players across the remaining squads have previously represented this proud nation, including Kiwi stars Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Apii Nicholls.

Generations of migration across Te Moana Nui a Kiwa (the Pacific Ocean) and the Tasman Sea have created deep family ties between these countries.

In the women’s semi-finals, 57% of players were born in Australia and another 28% in New Zealand. Twelve players across the Kiwi Ferns and Samoa squads have previously represented other countries, highlighting the overlapping national ties within Pacific rugby league.

The Australia-Fiji semi-final, meanwhile, presents a different picture. Only one Jillaroos player in the final team list, Tiana Penitani Gray, has previously represented another country (Tonga), while none of Fiji’s players have done so.

Club affiliations show a similar concentration in Australia: 86% of players across the four women’s semi-final squads compete in the National Rugby League Women’s Premiership (NRLW). They are based mostly with Australian clubs, though seven play with New Zealand’s Warriors Women. Fiji is the only team to draw heavily on players from outside the competition.

A younger Pacific

In the men’s semi-finals, 95% of players were born in Australia (50%) or New Zealand (45%). Seventeen players in the NZ-Tonga squads have previously represented another country, while just two players across the four men’s semi-final teams compete outside the National Rugby League (NRL).

The strong presence of NRL and NRLW players also highlights the sporting opportunities available in Australia and New Zealand, and the increasingly diverse populations of both countries.

We see such trends in wider migration patterns. In 2023, Australia and New Zealand recorded net migration gains, while Tonga, Samoa and Fiji experienced net losses.

Another notable demographic trend is the relatively young populations of Pacific nations. As governments around the world prepare for ageing populations and growing demand for services and pensions, the Pacific remains comparatively youthful.

That’s interestingly mirrored in the World Cup squads.

In the women’s competition, New Zealand (median age 27 years) and Australia (26) have considerably older squads than Fiji and Samoa (both 22). The pattern is similar among the men, with New Zealand (29) and Australia (28) fielding older squads than Samoa (26) and Tonga (24).

The differences are even more pronounced in the wider populations. The median ages of New Zealanders (37) and Australians (38) are much higher than those of people in Fiji (28), Tonga (21) and Samoa (20).

Within New Zealand, we can point to a similar pattern. The median age of NZ Europeans is 42, compared with 29 for Fijian New Zealanders, 24 for Samoan New Zealanders and 22 for Tongan New Zealanders.

These younger populations offer what we call a “demographic dividend”: the potential economic benefits as a growing share of the population enters its working and income-earning years.

But these benefits aren’t automatic. Realising them requires investment in young people’s health, education and skills, as well as opportunities to develop their talents and aspirations.

When talent meets opportunity

Many players representing Pacific nations in this weekend’s semi-finals grew up a long way from the islands they now represent. They and their families were drawn to Australia and New Zealand by opportunities in education, employment and sport.

Yet when the chance came, many chose to wear the jersey that reflects their identity, family ties and culture. Their achievements show what’s possible when young people have opportunities to develop their talents.

Building on that momentum means continuing to invest in young people, on and off the field, so the next generation can thrive – wherever they call home.

The authors acknowledge the contribution of Fiu Penjueli, senior statistician, Fiji Bureau of Statistics.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.